publications and presentations

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Recent Publications

Annan, J. D., & Hargreaves, J. C. (2013). A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the last glacial maximum. Climate of the Past, 9(1), 367–376.

Arjan J H Meddens, Crystal A Kolden, James A Lutz, Alistair M S Smith, C Alina Cansler, John T Abatzoglou, Garrett W Meigs, William M Downing, Meg A Krawchuk (2018). Fire Refugia: What Are They, and Why Do They Matter for Global Change? BioScience, 68(12),

Ashcroft, M. B. (2010). Identifying refugia from climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 37, 1407–1413.

Carroll C, Roberts DR, Michalak JL, et al. 2017. Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 23: 4508–20.

Cartwright, J., & Johnson, H. M. (2018). Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote-sensing approach. Ecosphere, 9(3), e02155.

Davis J, Pavlova A, Thompson R, and Sunnucks P. 2013. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 19: 1970–84.

Dobrowski SZ. 2011. A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate. Glob Chang Biol 17: 1022–35.

Enquist CAF, Jackson ST, Garfin GM, et al. 2017. Foundations of translational ecology. Front Ecol Environ 15: 541–50.

Gonzalez, P., F. Wang, M. Notaro, D.J. Vimont, and J.W. Williams. 2018. Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks. Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018) 104001

Hannah L, Flint L, Syphard AD, et al. 2014. Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: Holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia. Trends Ecol Evol 29: 390–7.

Harrison S and Noss R. 2017. Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia. Ann Bot 119: 207–14.

Heller NE and Zavaleta ES. 2009. Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142: 14–32.

Hobbs RJ, Higgs E, and Harris JA. 2009. Novel ecosystems: implications for conservation and restoration. Trends Ecol Evol 24: 599–605.

Isaak DJ, Young MK, Nagel DE, et al. 2015. The cold-water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century. Global Change Biol 21: doi: 10.1111/gcb.12879.

Keeley ATH, Basson G, Cameron DR, et al. 2018. Making habitat connectivity a reality. Conserv Biol 32: 1221–32.

Keppel G, Mokany K, Wardell-Johnson GW, et al. 2015. The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change. Front Ecol Environ 13: 106–12.

Keppel G, Niel KP Van, Wardell-Johnson GW, et al. 2012. Refugia: Identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 21: 393–404.

Krawchuk MA, Meigs GW, Cartwright J, et al. In Review. Disturbance refugia within mosaics of fire, drought, and insect outbreaks enable forest persistence. Front Ecol Environ.

Kurylyk BL, MacQuarrie KT, Linnansaari T, et al. 2015. Preserving, augmenting, and creating cold ‐water thermal refugia in rivers: concepts derived from research on the Miramichi River, New Brunswick (Canada). Ecohydrol 8: 1095-1108

Lawler JJ. 2009. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Resource Management and Conservation Planning. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1162: 79–98.

Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, et al. 2009. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462: 1052.

Maher, S. P., Morelli, T. L., Hershey, M., Flint, A. L., Flint, L. E., Moritz, C., & Beissinger, S. R. (2017). Erosion of refugia in the Sierra Nevada meadows network with climate change. Ecosphere, 8(4), e01673.

McLaughlin BC, Ackerly DD, Klos PZ, et al. 2017. Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change. Glob Chang Biol 23: 2941–61.

Meigs, G., & Krawchuk, M. (2018). Composition and Structure of Forest Fire Refugia: What Are the Ecosystem Legacies across Burned Landscapes? Forests, 9(5), 243.

Michalak JL, Lawler JJ, Roberts DR, and Carroll C. 2018. Distribution and protection of climatic refugia in North America. Conserv Biol 32: 1414–25.

Millar CI and Stephenson NL. 2015. Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance. Science (80- ) 349: 823 LP – 826.

Millar CI, Stephenson NL, and Stephens SL. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 17: 2145–51.

Mokany K, Jordan GJ, Harwood TD, et al. 2017. Past, present and future refugia for Tasmania’s palaeoendemic flora. J Biogeogr 44: 1537–46.

Morelli TL, Daly C, Dobrowski SZ, et al. 2016. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation. PLoS One 11.

Morelli TL, Maher S, Lim MCW, et al. 2017. Climate Change Refugia and Habitat Connectivity Promote Species Persistence. Clim Chang Responses.

Morelli TL, Smith a. B, Kastely CR, et al. 2012. Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 279: 4279–86.

Murphy N, Guzik M, Cooper S, and Austin A. 2015. Desert spring refugia: museums of diversity or evolutionary cradles? Zool Scr 44: 693-701

Nekola, J. C. (1999). Paleorefugia and neorefugia: the influence of colonization history on community pattern and process. Ecology, 80(8), 2459–2473.

Opdam P and Wascher D. 2004. Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation. Biol Conserv 117: 285–97.

Reside AE, Butt N, and Adams VM. 2018. Adapting systematic conservation planning for climate change. Biodivers Conserv 27: 1–29.

Sandel B, Arge L, Dalsgaard B, et al. 2011. The Influence of Late Quaternary ClimateChange Velocity on Species Endemism. Science (80- ) 334: 660 LP – 664.

Stein BA, Staudt A, Cross MS, et al. 2013. Preparing for and managing change: climate adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems. Front Ecol Environ 11: 502–10.

Stralberg D, Wang X, Parisien M-A, et al. 2018. Wildfire-mediated vegetation change in boreal forests of Alberta, Canada. Ecosphere 9: e02156.

Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araujo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Cabeza, M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgley, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M. and Sykes, M.T., 2008. Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics, 9(3-4), pp.137-152.

News articles Climate Refugia: Safe Havens for Vulnerable Species January 1 2019

Gizmodo Ticks Are Killing an Alarming Number of Moose Thanks to Climate Change October 19 2018

National Geographic Iconic Joshua trees may disappear—but scientists are fighting back October 15 2018

The Narwhal Canada has some of the world’s last wild places. Are we keeping our promise to protect them? October 15 2018

The New York Times ‘Lifeboats’ Amid the World’s Wildfires October 12 2018

NE CSC Regional Science Meeting Refugia Session Output List May 17, 2017

NE CSC News New Publication: Mapping Meadows of Climate “Refugia” in the Sierra Nevada  May 8, 2017

NE CSC News New Publication: Managing Climate Change Refugia to Protect Wildlife  August 10, 2016

UMass Press Release  Managing Climate Change Refugia to Protect Wildlife August 10, 2016

Laboratory Equipment Managing Climate Change Refugia to Protect Wildlife August 11, 2016

Phys.Org Managing climate change refugia to protect wildlife August 10, 2016

Science Newsline Managing Climate Change Refugia to Protect Wildlife August 10, 2016

Terra Daily Managing climate change refugia to protect wildlife August 10, 2016

Gazette UMass researchers looking for places safe from climate change August 15, 2016

New England Public Radio Researchers At UMass Look For The Places That Climate Change Forgot, August 23, 2016

Wildlife Conservation Society Magazine  Steps to managing climate change refugia for wildlife  August 24, 2016

New England Public Radio Conservationists Try To Thwart Climate Change By Planting in Cold Spots June 21, 2017


Morelli, T. L., Stralberg, D, and Krawchuk, M. Success stories of on-the-ground climate change refugia conservation. National Adaption Forum. Madison, WI. April 2019.

Morelli,T. L., Cartwright, J. M. and Ramirez, A. R. Presentation + Organized session on climate change refugia. ESA, New Orleans, LA. August 2018.

The Science of Resistance: Climate change refugia, landscape connectivity, and translational ecology. Stony Brook University Department of Ecology and Evolution. Annual Retreat, March 2018.

Climate change refugia, landscape connectivity, and translational ecology. Reed College Department of Biology. February 2018.

The Science of Resistance: Climate change refugia, landscape connectivity, and translational ecology. University of Connecticut Department of Environment and Wildlife, November 2017.

Morelli, Toni Lyn. - Invited talk. ESA , Baltimore. August 2015.

Morelli, Toni Lyn. - Presentation + Organized session on climate change refugia. AGU. December, 2015.

Morelli, Toni Lyn. "How to Prioritize Key Areas for Conservation Efforts in a Changing Climate: A Look at “Climate Refugia”. NCCWSC Seminar. December 2015.

Morelli, Toni Lyn. Wrokshop: Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature World Conservation Congress. Honolulu, Hawaii. July 2016.

Morelli, Toni Lyn.  Organized Session: Co-production of knowledge: managers and scientists working together for effective conservation in the face of climate change. The Natural Areas Conference. Davis, CA. October 2016.

Morelli, Toni Lyn.  Organized Session: Climate-Influenced Species Range Shifts: Where Are We Headed? The American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco. December 2016.

Morelli, Toni Lyn.  Invited Webinar: Climate Project Screening Tool. U.S. Forest Service Region 5. February 2017.

Morelli, Toni Lyn.  The Northeast Climate Science Center: Improving the Way Climate Science Informs Resource Management. 76th Annual Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference. Lincoln, Nebraska. February 2017.

Morelli, Toni Lyn. Symposium Presentation: Conserving Climate Change Refugia as a Climate Adaptation Strategy. George Wright. Norfolk Virginia. April 2017.